The latest regional conflict in the Middle East, between Iran, the United States and their allies was, in many ways, unlike any other conflict throughout history. Perhaps the most curious element was the sheer volume of peace deals and ceasefires that were announced and broken in less than 24 hours. This is why some question the most recent peace deal, announced on June 14th by the Pakistani Prime Minister Shariz and later confirmed by the US President Donald Trump on Truth Social, and Iran's foreign deputy minister Kazem Gharibabadi on Iranian television. The deal was set to be signed on Friday June 19th in Switzerland, with 60 days following the signing to finalise the details. The deal didn't make it through the weekend, when Iran accused Israel of continuing its Lebanon operations and closed the Strait of Hormuz again. But somewhat regardless of the details of this deal, how long, and if, the peace will last, the last few months of this conflict have sent huge ripples down the global system and will have long lasting consequences — mainly for the American empire.
Until very recently the United States was the judge, jury, and executioner within the global rules-based order. The US had the capacity to interpret those rules and direct the broader global community, especially the Global North, towards what it decided is the 'correct' approach. Kosovo had the right to vote in an independence referendum and split away from Serbia, while the Crimean referendum was a farce of democracy and a shameful attempt at conquest. Being an ally of Uncle Sam had more benefits attached to it than trying to fight a losing battle regarding the interpretation of international law. This was especially true for countries who neighbour powerful local powers. Japan, or Taiwan could not oppose China on their own but the promise of an intervention from the US Navy shifted the balance of power. Being a US ally could have been difficult at times. As Henry Kissinger quipped "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." To say that the Israel-Palestine war put Arab countries between a rock and a hard place would be a significant understatement. But, until very recently, it was worth it to meander between alliances and jump through hoops of US allegiance without falling into direct opposition to one's neighbours. The promise of defence from world's most capable and advanced army made it all worth it.
But just like Russia learned the hard way that an army that looks powerful on parades and on paper does not have to do well when tested, the US learned this lesson in the Strait of Hormuz and the skies above Iran. Just like in Vietnam the US army overpowered the Iranian military. But, just like in Vietnam, the Iranians were capable of precise and very painful strikes both directly against the US as well as their allies. Militarily, Iran targeted US bases, Israeli cities, and all those Arabic countries which did not oppose "the great Satan." But economically, through the closure of Hormuz, Iran targeted pretty much the majority of the developed and developing world. Cutting the flow of oil, fertilisers, petrochemical product and everyday cargo was similar to the supply chain disruption during Covid. However, the countries who did not follow US sanctions and still imported Russian oil or gas, did not suffer energy cost spikes to the extent that those who stopped importing from Russia did. Similarly for countries who still imported Iranian crude - they slept better. But the countries allied with the US? Their nights were spent in bomb shelters after Iran targeted them as well. It started becoming clear that being a US ally was no longer a no-brainer, but required more thought about the pros and cons. And as the conflict progressed, the cons became even more glaring.
Through the ages a smaller country neighbouring a local power had to be very careful to not anger that power: you do not poke the bear in the eye or grab the tiger by the tail. But thanks to the globalisation of influence and the US capacity to have a bomber with nuclear capability deployed into any part of the world in less than 30 hours, this balance of power shifted. This is what allows the Baltic states to be the most vocal critics of Russia, what allows Japan and South Korea to so openly oppose China, or Israel to stand up against all its neighbours. In return for this promise of defence, those countries host US bases or missile batteries, thus recursively feeding the American capacity to project strength globally. Among the most advanced of these weapon systems were the THAAD missiles, state of the art high altitude missile interceptors. A battery of them, one of ten in service, was deployed into South Korea to protect the country from any missiles shot from North Korea and, if it came to it, fired from China. You can therefore imagine the surprise that Seul felt when in mid-March the US moved their THAAD from Korea to the Middle East. Housing US bases, US troops, huge military spending with US-based companies, playing a key role in the American AI buildout, and investing in both US treasuries and the US market were not enough to back the cheque of protection at the first occasion it was tested.
Korea was stripped from their actual deterrents while getting a reinforced promise of help if needed. US Middle Eastern allies were suffering daily loses from cheap and inferior Iranian drones and missiles, and American allies globally were coming face to face with the potential consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The bet taken by many nations, which seemed obvious through the 20th and 21st centuries was becoming ever less obvious. Was the vague promise of US protection worth becoming a potential target? The American empire was built on the global projection of strength and held together by the dollar. But Iran exposed American power just like the Ukraine exposed Russia. The cat was out of the bag, and the US navy and air force were at least evenly matched by $7,000 drones. Members of the American block probably won't make any hasty moves yet, but when the next confrontation occurs, as it most probably will, every state involved will have the Iranian humiliation in mind - irrespective of whether this peace deal holds or turns out to be just another fluke.